Because of the electoral college, a handful of key states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina) will likely decide who will be the President in 2020.
Despite polling so poorly nationally, Trump’s chances of reelection are surprisingly good because how well he’s doing in these key states.
A major problem with polling in 2016, is that while national polls were good, the quality of polling in they key states was notoriously poor. Learning from the mistakes of 2016, the NY Times conducted a poll that adjusted for these errors and found that Trump is quite competitive against his three main Democratic opponents (Biden, Sanders, and Warren) in these key states.
There were four big takeaways…
- Trump beats all three in North Carolina.
- Biden is the Democrat’s best chance to beat Trump. He won 5 of 6 states (NC being the exception).
- Sanders and Trump tie with 3 states each.
- Warren wins only 1 state (Arizona) and that was by a slim 2 point margin.
This last one is probably the most significant takeaway for Democrats. This is more evidence that finds that voters, in general, don’t like far-left policies or politicians. While being far left policies might appeal to primary voters, electing a far-left Democratic candidate is the surest way help Trump win re-election.